Market conditions change frequently as harvest approaches and begins. The rain Tunisia is receiving now helps only to give the tree strength for next year’s fruit.
We’re starting to get insight of the global olive oil crop. Global production is forecasted to remain the same as last year, around 3.03 million tons of olive oil. After last year’s bumper crop, we estimate 140K Mt in Tunisia. Spain is projecting 1.6 million Mt, with new worries that it may be as low as 1.5MM. Italy and Greece are forecasting a decrease, 287K and 200K tons produced, respectively.
There seems to be more evidence that we should expect an increase of olive oil pricing with the new crop. Even though production will be the same, the oil remaining from the 2019/2020 production is lower than last year in both Spain and Tunisia. Reported quantities could be as low as 300K Mt (vs. 750K LY) in Spain and no quantifiable report in Tunisia. This reduction of available oil is leading to higher prices.
Consumption is up worldwide due to Coronavirus and expected to continue.
The indication of higher prices is also appearing in the olive fruit market.
When harvest starts, we will have a more realistic observation of the production and yield. In December, we’ll be able to confirm 2021 pricing